2. Ultra ESC 40 Amp (when they become available)
Did you rank something that is not in production yet, on a list of "reliable" speed controllers? What is that based on?
I'm using #4, myself. Not too many flight hours yet, and I'm not really pushing 40A normally. That would only be considered "War Emergency Power" for my Octo.

I think the key with ESC's, is to leave some headroom. I'm typically only flying on 6A. They'll only hit about 30A if I punch it. There's a small weight penalty, but that wasn't a design consideration for me. In turn I saved a ton of weight on copper due to design considerations.
I think a big reason why people have problems is sort of what you allude too. If you're pulling 20-30Amp on a 40Amp ESC at 50% throttle in a hover, without active free-wheeling, that's probably not going to work out well. Again it gets back to design considerations.